Europe’s coasts are full of quiet potential. Day and night, Atlantic waves roll towards the continent with a steady rhythm — carrying vast stores of clean, untapped energy. If those waves could be harnessed efficiently, they could power millions of homes. Yet while wind and solar have raced ahead, wave energy has remained more promise than practice.
A recent study from Aalto University [60.2°N, 24.8°E] asks the central question that could change this: what would it take for the energy of the ocean to become as affordable as the energy of the wind and the sun?
The answer, it turns out, lies not just in technology, but in economics — and in how Europe values the dependability that the sea can offer.
Counting the Cost of a Wave
At the core of the study is the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) — a measure that expresses how much it costs, on average, to generate one megawatt-hour of electricity over a power plant’s lifetime. It combines the costs of building the system (capital expenditure, or CAPEX), running and maintaining it (operational expenditure, or OPEX), and financing it, while also accounting for how often it actually produces power (its capacity factor).
At present, wave energy’s LCOE in the EU is estimated at €332 to €529 per megawatt-hour — several times more expensive than wind or solar. By comparison, solar PV now produces electricity for around €40–60/MWh, onshore wind for €30–60/MWh, and offshore wind for €60–80/MWh.
Much of that difference comes from the early stage of wave technology. Most devices — called Wave Energy Converters (WECs) — are still prototypes, facing high installation and maintenance costs in the harsh marine environment. The technology’s learning curve is just beginning, whereas solar and wind have benefitted from decades of scale, manufacturing refinement, and policy support.
The Scenarios: What Could Happen by 2050
Minarini’s analysis models two futures for wave energy by 2050:
- Pessimistic scenario: modest improvements, with capital costs falling to €4 million per megawatt and efficiency rising only slightly.
→ Projected LCOE: €219/MWh. - Optimistic scenario: strong cost reductions and technological maturity, with CAPEX halved to €3 million per MW and capacity factors improving to 40%.
→ Projected LCOE: €86.5/MWh — close to Europe’s current wholesale electricity price and within reach of offshore wind.
That would be a transformation comparable to what happened to solar and wind power over the past two decades. Between 2010 and 2023, for example, the cost of solar power fell by 85%, while onshore wind dropped by over half. If wave energy can follow even part of that trajectory, it could become a meaningful player in Europe’s renewable mix.
Why Wave Power Still Matters Even If It’s Costly
Even if wave energy doesn’t become the cheapest source of power, it offers qualities that make it valuable to the energy system as a whole.
Unlike solar and wind, wave energy is highly predictable and available day and night. Its output is less variable and often peaks when the wind drops, making it a natural complement to other renewables. That means fewer sudden dips in generation and a steadier, more reliable grid — a crucial factor as Europe increases its share of renewables.
In market terms, wave energy could compete not just on cost, but on timing and value. Under the EU’s electricity pricing system, the final price is often set by the last (and most expensive) fossil-fuel generator needed to meet demand. If wave energy can produce power during those high-demand periods, it could undercut coal or gas plants — helping to push fossil fuels further down the “merit order” and clean up the grid, even at a slightly higher cost per megawatt-hour.
Lessons from Wind and Solar
The study also compares wave energy’s present situation to where solar and wind once were. In 2010, solar’s LCOE was over €400/MWh; onshore wind’s was around €100/MWh. Policy support, innovation, and economies of scale drove both down dramatically within a decade.
For wave energy to follow the same curve, similar tools will be needed:
- Feed-in tariffs (FITs) and contracts for difference (CfDs) to guarantee stable revenues during early deployment;
- Research and development funding to improve reliability and cut marine maintenance costs;
- Targeted policy frameworks like the EU’s Strategic Energy Technology Plan, which already envisions 100 GW of ocean energy by 2050.
These measures don’t just lower financial risk — they create the conditions for industries to learn, build, and grow cheaper with time.
From Promise to Power
Today, Europe’s wave energy still costs several times more than power from wind or solar. But its potential contribution goes beyond numbers. A mature wave energy sector would mean energy diversity, greater resilience, and reduced dependence on imported fuels.
If learning rates mirror those seen in other renewables, the next quarter-century could turn Europe’s coasts into engines of clean electricity. By 2050, the steady rhythm of the Atlantic might not just shape the tides — it could help power the continent.
Source
How Can Wave Energy Achieve Cost Competitiveness with Wind, Solar, and Coal in the EU?, Aalto University, 2025-09-29
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