By mid-century, the North Sea could be almost unrecognisable. If every national target is met, more than 19,400 wind turbines will rise from the water, together occupying about 11 percent of the sea’s surface area. That’s the vision outlined in a new analysis by researchers from Heriot-Watt University, the University of Hull, and the University of St Andrews, who set out to map what the basin might look like in 2050 if current ambitions are fulfilled.
Offshore wind is no longer peripheral to Europe’s energy transition. For the United Kingdom, it has been described as the “backbone” of the future grid. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, governments from Denmark to Germany accelerated their plans. In the Esbjerg Declaration, four states committed to turning the North Sea into “a green power plant for Europe.” The Ostend Declaration expanded that commitment across the region the following year.
Scale and Density
The projected build-out is staggering. By 2050, the UK alone could host 74 gigawatts (GW) of capacity in its North Sea waters, while Germany and the Netherlands could reach 63 GW and 72 GW, respectively. These installations will not be evenly spaced: Germany and Belgium, squeezed by smaller exclusive economic zones, are planning far denser farms than their neighbors. This density could undermine efficiency, as turbines placed too close together interfere with one another’s airflow, lowering power yields.
Ecological and Industrial Tensions
An offshore wind footprint of this size will inevitably clash with other uses of the sea. Fishing fleets, which depend on access not just to surface routes but to the seabed itself, will face particular strain. Shipping, meanwhile, may adapt more readily, though rerouted vessels will burn more fuel and add to emissions.
Environmental impacts are complex and still uncertain. Fixed-bottom turbines require pile-driving — noisy construction that can disturb marine mammals — while floating platforms reduce this risk but create others, such as potential entanglement. Large-scale farms also alter water mixing and stratification, which could affect plankton growth and, in turn, fish stocks. Above the surface, turbine wakes can extend for dozens of kilometers, affecting neighboring farms and possibly even regional weather patterns.
A Shared Sea
The authors stress that their layouts are not predictions but plausible scenarios. They serve as a common dataset that policymakers, modelers, and stakeholders can use to anticipate conflicts and test strategies for mitigation. As the North Sea becomes one of the most intensively used seas on Earth, integrated marine spatial planning will be indispensable.
The Bigger Picture
By 2050, wind farms are expected to occupy nearly one-fifth of the Dutch sector and large portions of Denmark’s and Germany’s waters. The North Sea will thus become a proving ground for how societies balance the drive for renewable energy with the need to preserve marine ecosystems, sustain fisheries, and maintain safe navigation.
The question is no longer whether offshore wind will dominate this region, but whether Europe can manage the transition in a way that delivers clean energy without sacrificing the sea’s other roles.
Source
Offshore wind and the spatial squeeze: a plausible future layout for the North Sea, SSRN, 2025-08-30
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