A new study takes a hard look at whether planting trees (afforestation) can realistically offset the carbon emissions from the world’s biggest fossil fuel companies and the answer is a sobering “no.”
The Cost Problem
- Fossil fuel companies have huge reserves that would release 673 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO₂ if burned — far beyond what we can afford if we want to limit warming to 1.5°C.
- To offset all that carbon with trees would cost more than $10 trillion, even using the cheapest method (afforestation at $16 per tonne of CO₂).
- More advanced tech like direct air capture would cost up to $673 trillion. That’s seven times the world’s total GDP.
The Land Problem
- Offsetting these emissions with trees alone would require turning land the size of North and Central America into forests; displacing farms, homes, and ecosystems.
- Trying to offset all historical emissions would mean planting trees on more than half the Earth’s habitable land; obviously not realistic.
The Ecological Catch
- Trees need water, nutrients, and suitable soil to grow. Many places simply can’t support new forests.
- Planting trees in the wrong places (e.g., peatlands or tundra) could actually release more carbon.
- Forests are vulnerable to fires, disease, and climate change, meaning stored carbon isn’t always safe.
- And tree planting can compete with food production, raising ethical concerns about hunger and land use.
The Economic Reality
- If fossil fuel companies had to pay to offset their future emissions (using any realistic carbon price), most would have a negative value: They’d be worth less than nothing to society.
Key Takeaway
Offsetting with trees might sound like a simple fix, but it’s not enough. It’s cheaper, safer, and far more effective to leave fossil fuels in the ground than to burn them and try to clean up afterward.
Offsetting has a role, especially in protecting forests and restoring ecosystems, but it cannot substitute for cutting emissions at the source.
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Source
Carbon offsetting of fossil fuel emissions through afforestation is limited by financial viability and spatial requirements, Communications, Earth & Environment, 2025-06-19
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