A new proposal from researchers in Trondheim [10.4°E, 63.4°N], with British and US collaborators, introduces a model that could save billions of euros while accelerating the shift to clean energy: what to keep, what to update, and what to leave behind.
What’s New?
The model, dubbed REORIENT, doesn’t just plan for building new green energy systems — it also factors in retrofitting existing oil and gas infrastructure and making tough decisions about when to abandon outdated systems. Most importantly, it does this under conditions of real-world uncertainty: fluctuating energy prices, unpredictable renewable supply, and future climate goals.
Traditionally, investment models only look forward. REORIENT looks at everything: what exists, what could be reused, and what should be decommissioned — all while managing risks on multiple timescales.
Why It Matters
Europe faces a growing dilemma: much of its offshore oil and gas infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life. Dismantling it is expensive, yet simply abandoning it is wasteful and polluting. The REORIENT model shows that retrofitting platforms for offshore hydrogen production — and repurposing gas pipelines for hydrogen transport — can make both environmental and economic sense.
The model’s simulations suggest that if retrofit costs are kept under 20% of new infrastructure, it becomes the most cost-effective route in many cases. It even found that smart retrofitting and phasing-out of platforms could cut energy investment costs by 24% in the North Sea region compared to traditional planning.
A More Circular Transition
This is a standout example of circular thinking in energy — reusing the old to build the new. Rather than replacing everything with shiny new tech, REORIENT encourages a mix: selective investment, strategic retrofit, and smart exits. In doing so, it makes the transition not only greener, but also more economically and politically feasible.
It also acknowledges something rarely tackled in models: the multibillion-euro reality of oil and gas profits. By factoring these in, the model doesn’t pretend fossil infrastructure doesn’t exist — it incorporates it into a workable, phased-out future.
Behind the Scenes: Serious Computing Power
Technically speaking, this planning model uses something called stabilised adaptive Benders decomposition — a clever algorithm that breaks massive, uncertain problems into manageable pieces. The researchers also devised a new method to handle decision-making involving both continuous and binary choices (like whether or not to retrofit a platform), making this one of the most robust tools of its kind.
Looking Ahead
As Europe — and the world — races toward net-zero goals, having smarter planning tools is critical. REORIENT doesn’t offer a one-size-fits-all answer, but it does show how to navigate complexity, reuse resources, and make the best use of what we’ve already built.
With thousands of oil and gas wells soon needing decisions, this work could reshape not just how we invest — but how we think about infrastructure in a low-carbon future.
Source
Integrated investment, retrofit and abandonment energy system planning with multi-timescale uncertainty using stabilised adaptive Benders decomposition, European Journal of Operational Research, 2025-04-11
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